274 
WTNT72 KNHC 210233
SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.5 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM EST WED NOV 23 2005
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
17.5N  84.0W      42  X  X  X 42   MUSN 216N 826W     X  4  X  X  4
17.5N  82.0W       5 25  X  X 30   MHNJ 165N 859W    99  X  X  X 99
MWCG 193N 814W     1 22  X  X 23   MNPC 141N 834W     1  4  X  X  5
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM MON TO  7AM TUE
C FROM  7AM TUE TO  7PM TUE
D FROM  7PM TUE TO  7PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
$$

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Year

Saffir-Simpson Scale All hurricanes are dangerous, but some more so than others. The way storm surge, wind, and other factors combine determines the hurricane's destructive power. To make comparisons easier-and to make the predicted hazards of approaching hurricanes clearer to emergency forces-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane forecasters use a disaster-potential scale which assigns storms to five categories. Category 1 is a minimum hurricane; category 5 is the worst case. The criteria for each category in the table shown below: Category Central Pressure Maximum Winds Storm Surge Tropical Depression   38 mph / 34 kts or less 4-5 ft. Tropical Storm > 980 mb or 28.94 in 39-73 mph or 34-63 kts 4-5 ft. 1 - Minimal < 980 mb or 28.94 in 74-95 mph or 64-83 kts 4-5 ft. 2 - Moderate 965-979 mb or 28.50-28.91 in 96-110 mph or 65-96 kts 6-8 ft. 3 - Extensive 945-964 mb or 27.91-28.47 in 111-130 mph or 97-113 kts 9-12ft. 4 - Extreme 920-944 mb or 27.17-27.88 in 131-155 mph or 114-135 kts 13-18 ft. >5 - Catastrophic < 920 mb or 27.17 in > 155 mph or 135 kts > 18 ft.   * - The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is based on Windspeed alone, the pressures are only included as a general reference and may not always apply