000
WTNT22 KNHC 172049
TCMAT2
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
2100 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  56.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  30 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 480SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  56.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N  58.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.9N  50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.0N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.0N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 330SE 330SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 52.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 300SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 54.0N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 270SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 47.6N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.0N  28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N  56.5W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RAFAEL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

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Year

Saffir-Simpson Scale All hurricanes are dangerous, but some more so than others. The way storm surge, wind, and other factors combine determines the hurricane's destructive power. To make comparisons easier-and to make the predicted hazards of approaching hurricanes clearer to emergency forces-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane forecasters use a disaster-potential scale which assigns storms to five categories. Category 1 is a minimum hurricane; category 5 is the worst case. The criteria for each category in the table shown below: Category Central Pressure Maximum Winds Storm Surge Tropical Depression   38 mph / 34 kts or less 4-5 ft. Tropical Storm > 980 mb or 28.94 in 39-73 mph or 34-63 kts 4-5 ft. 1 - Minimal < 980 mb or 28.94 in 74-95 mph or 64-83 kts 4-5 ft. 2 - Moderate 965-979 mb or 28.50-28.91 in 96-110 mph or 65-96 kts 6-8 ft. 3 - Extensive 945-964 mb or 27.91-28.47 in 111-130 mph or 97-113 kts 9-12ft. 4 - Extreme 920-944 mb or 27.17-27.88 in 131-155 mph or 114-135 kts 13-18 ft. >5 - Catastrophic < 920 mb or 27.17 in > 155 mph or 135 kts > 18 ft.   * - The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is based on Windspeed alone, the pressures are only included as a general reference and may not always apply